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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 37

What Actually Happened

(3:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-M.Lee ran ob at JAX 15 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model