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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model