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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP