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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 37 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-C.Grant. 30-C.Grant right end pushed ob at BAL 7 for 58 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on BAL-34-A.Collins, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 7.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model