4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 44 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to BAL 24, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model