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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to JAX 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model