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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model