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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model