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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

NE
56.2%
NO
43.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE on 4 more days rest than NO
  • QB edge to NE: Drew Brees (NO) +0.157 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.196 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 27
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Concussion
Dont'a Hightower LB Out Knee
Matt Slater WR Out Hamstring
Vincent Valentine DT Out Knee
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Ankle
Nate Ebner S Questionable Shoulder
Devin McCourty S Questionable Groin

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Shoulder
Zach Strief T Out Knee
Stephone Anthony LB Questionable Ankle
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Illness
Nathan Stupar LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 36
–
NO 20

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:37 TD NE (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-T.Hendrickson]. NE 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 07:43 FG NO (7:43) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NE 6 – NO 3
  • Q1 05:42 TD NE (5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 17, YAC 36 NE 12 – NO 3
  • Q1 00:21 TD NE (:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 2 NE 19 – NO 3
  • Q2 11:56 TD NO (11:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 NE 20 – NO 9
  • Q2 08:23 FG NO (8:23) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NE 20 – NO 13
  • Q2 04:52 TD NE (4:52) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – NO 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG NE (:02) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 30 – NO 13
  • Q3 00:44 FG NE (:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 33 – NO 13
  • Q4 08:54 FG NE (8:54) 3-S.Gostkowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. INJURY UPDATE: NE#34 R.Burkhead and NE#87 R.Gronkowski both QUESTIONABLE to return. NE 36 – NO 13
  • Q4 05:09 TD NO (5:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-C.Fleener for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 1 NE 36 – NO 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (7:43) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to NE 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:40) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to NO 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 39 for 16 yards (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (8:23) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 85%

    (2:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (:02) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 48%

    (11:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to NE 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:42) 6-R.Allen punts 27 yards to NO 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-59-M.Flowers. PENALTY on NE-83-D.Allen, Offensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at NO 29. INJURY UPDATE: NE #25 E.Rowe, groin, questionable.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (5:00) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:27) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-P.Chung ran ob at NE 11 for no gain.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:54) 3-S.Gostkowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. INJURY UPDATE: NE#34 R.Burkhead and NE#87 R.Gronkowski both QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 51%

    (7:19) 28-A.Peterson left end pushed ob at NE 40 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).