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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 56

New England Patriots 30 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 6-R.Allen punts 27 yards to NO 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-59-M.Flowers. PENALTY on NE-83-D.Allen, Offensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at NO 29. INJURY UPDATE: NE #25 E.Rowe, groin, questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP