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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 6

New England Patriots 30 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP