4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to NE 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model