4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 13 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to NE 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model