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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 10

New England Patriots 27 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.89 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model