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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 13 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-P.Chung ran ob at NE 11 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model