Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 80

New England Patriots 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

(10:40) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to NO 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at NO 39 for 16 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model