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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 13 – New England Patriots 36

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 28-A.Peterson left end pushed ob at NE 40 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.79 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model