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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New Orleans Saints
4th & 3 at the 25
New Orleans Saints 13 – New England Patriots 27
What Actually Happened
(2:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 19-T.Ginn.
The Three Options
GO
+1.55 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
- 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP
KICK
+1.25 EP
- 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
