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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DAL
48.2%
DEN
51.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.202 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DAL

Anthony Hitchens LB Out Knee
Orlando Scandrick CB Out Hand
Byron Jones S Questionable Groin
Terrance Williams WR Questionable Ankle

DEN

Jared Crick DE Out Back
Brendan Langley CB Out Knee
Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder
Devontae Booker RB Out Wrist
Zach Kerr DE Questionable Knee
Ronald Leary G Questionable Concussion
Darian Stewart S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17
–
DEN 42

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD DEN (9:30) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 12:43 TD DAL (12:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-D.Bryant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – DEN 7
  • Q2 06:01 TD DEN (6:01) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 22-C.Anderson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – DEN 13
  • Q2 01:43 TD DEN (1:43) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – DEN 20
  • Q2 00:08 FG DAL (:08) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 10 – DEN 21
  • Q3 08:01 TD DEN (8:01) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 85-V.Green for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – DEN 27
  • Q3 06:23 TD DEN (6:23) 22-C.Anderson left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – DEN 34
  • Q4 14:32 TD DAL (14:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 82-J.Witten for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – DEN 35
  • Q4 01:12 TD DEN (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-D.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN -3. 21-A.Talib for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – DEN 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:19) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to DEN 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:31) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to DEN 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 74%

    (2:29) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 54%

    (15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:36) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to DEN 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at DEN 49 for 20 yards (45-R.Smith).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

    (:08) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant to DEN 48 for 9 yards (25-C.Harris).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 46%

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Witten [58-V.Miller].

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DEN 25 for 5 yards (91-K.Edebali; 31-J.Simmons).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-33-D.Henderson.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:47) 6-C.Jones punts 62 yards to DEN 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 12 for no gain (51-K.Wilber). Penalty on DEN-29-B.Roby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DEN 12.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Bryant (29-B.Roby).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to DAL 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer to DEN 37 for 19 yards (42-C.Kreiter).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-D.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN -3. 21-A.Talib for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.