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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Denver Broncos 35

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 6-C.Jones punts 62 yards to DEN 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 12 for no gain (51-K.Wilber). Penalty on DEN-29-B.Roby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DEN-95-D.Wolfe, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DEN 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.26 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model