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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.21 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP