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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Denver Broncos 35

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Witten [58-V.Miller].

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model