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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 35 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DAL 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-33-D.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP