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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Denver Broncos 35

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant to DEN 48 for 9 yards (25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model