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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Denver Broncos 35

What Actually Happened

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DEN 25 for 5 yards (91-K.Edebali; 31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model