Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(6:31) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to DEN 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.98 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model