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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Denver Broncos 35

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Bryant (29-B.Roby).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.72 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model