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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Denver Broncos 35

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-D.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN -3. 21-A.Talib for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP