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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
71.4%
LA
28.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.349 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Jared Goff (LA) -0.375 vs Scott Tolzien (IND) -0.243 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 26
–
LA 17
Projected margin: IND by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

IND

Vontae Davis CB Out Groin
Ryan Kelly C Out Foot
Andrew Luck QB Out right Shoulder
Chester Rogers WR Out Hamstring
Ian Silberman G Out Lumbar

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 9
–
LA 46

Prediction missed by 46 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:48 FG LA (12:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. IND 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 11:21 TD LA (11:21) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Johnson [90-M.Brockers] at IND 39. 22-T.Johnson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – LA 9
  • Q1 06:25 FG IND (6:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – LA 10
  • Q2 09:44 TD LA (9:44) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. IND 3 – LA 16
  • Q2 05:27 TD LA (5:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 18-C.Kupp for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – LA 23
  • Q2 00:22 FG LA (:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. IND 3 – LA 27
  • Q3 07:28 FG LA (7:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. IND 3 – LA 30
  • Q3 07:23 TD LA (7:23) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 20-L.Joyner at IND 29. 20-L.Joyner for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – LA 36
  • Q4 11:36 TD IND (11:36) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – LA 37
  • Q4 09:29 SAF LA (9:29) 25-M.Mack left tackle to IND 7 for -3 yards (58-C.Littleton). FUMBLES (58-C.Littleton), recovered by IND-7-J.Brissett at IND -3. 7-J.Brissett tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (97-M.Fox). IND 9 – LA 39
  • Q4 04:33 TD LA (4:33) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – LA 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (12:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (6:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to IND 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-Q.Bray to IND 13 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam, 24-B.Countess). PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at IND 13.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:01) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to LA 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Austin to LA 31 for 8 yards (51-J.Simon).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 54%

    (3:14) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Doyle.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 93%

    (:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to LA 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-59-J.George at LA 24. 59-J.George to LA 24 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam). Penalty on LA-58-C.Littleton, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (12:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 84%

    (7:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 23%

    (4:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to IND 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to LA 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-58-C.Littleton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 42.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (14:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 23%

    (9:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-Q.Bray to IND 10 for no gain (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:05) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.