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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to LA 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Austin to LA 31 for 8 yards (51-J.Simon).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model