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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 37 – Indianapolis Colts 9

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-Q.Bray to IND 10 for no gain (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model