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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model