Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 37 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(14:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.70 EP
77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model