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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 37 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to IND 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP