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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 9 – Los Angeles Rams 46

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model