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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP