Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Rams 37

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to LA 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-58-C.Littleton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.70 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 93, worth -5.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model