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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model