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Pittsburgh Steelers

11-5 HC Mike Tomlin
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Kansas City Chiefs

12-4 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2017-01-15 · 20:20 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT
47.7%
KC
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • KC offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Alex Smith (KC) +0.098 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.192 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.003 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22 15–29
–
KC 23 16–30
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

PIT

Anthony Chickillo LB Out Ankle
Ladarius Green TE Doubtful Concussion
Ricardo Mathews DE Questionable Ankle
Fitzgerald Toussaint RB Questionable Concussion

KC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 18
–
KC 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:42 FG PIT (9:42) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 06:14 TD KC (6:14) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 12-A.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – KC 6
  • Q1 03:56 FG PIT (3:56) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 09:23 FG PIT (9:23) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 9 – KC 7
  • Q2 01:00 FG PIT (1:00) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 12 – KC 7
  • Q3 10:11 FG PIT (10:11) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 15 – KC 7
  • Q3 00:15 FG KC (:15) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 15 – KC 10
  • Q4 09:53 FG PIT (9:53) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 18 – KC 10
  • Q4 02:47 TD KC (2:47) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 18 – KC 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.18 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (9:42) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

    (3:56) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to PIT 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (9:23) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to PIT 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 45 for 6 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (1:00) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 26 for 3 yards (12-A.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (10:11) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 24%

    (5:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to PIT 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (3:08) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to PIT 46, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (:15) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 14 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

    (9:53) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 53%

    (7:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 17-C.Conley to PIT 26 for 12 yards (50-R.Shazier).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (3:29) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 42-A.Sherman to PIT 1 for 3 yards (28-S.Davis; 31-R.Cockrell).

    See the full breakdown →