4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 42-A.Sherman to PIT 1 for 3 yards (28-S.Davis; 31-R.Cockrell).

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model