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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +4.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.18 EP