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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 89

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to PIT 46, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.08 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 89, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP