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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 26 for 3 yards (12-A.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model