Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

(:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to PIT 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model