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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to PIT 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model