Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

(5:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to PIT 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 45 for 6 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model