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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(:15) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model