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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model