Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.168 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.071 EPA/dropback
- TB offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- TB defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 17
CAR
TB
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:05 FG TB (11:05) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. CAR 0 – TB 3
- Q1 08:26 TD CAR (8:26) (No Huddle) 28-J.Stewart right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 3
- Q3 14:27 TD TB (14:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 19-T.Ginn INTERCEPTED by 24-B.Grimes at CAR 31. 24-B.Grimes for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 9
- Q3 06:42 FG CAR (6:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – TB 10
- Q4 03:21 TD TB (3:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-23-L.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined. CAR 10 – TB 16
- Q4 00:22 TD CAR (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%
(11:05) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(6:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to CAR 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(3:12) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to TB 46 for 20 yards (30-T.Dixon). PENALTY on TB-26-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 33.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:52) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.
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Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CAR 18, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 18 for no gain (23-C.Conte).
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Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%
(:46) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 50%
(:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 58 yard field goal is No Good, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. 11-A.Humphries at TB -9 to CAR 33 for 76 yards (84-E.Dickson).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%
(12:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-43-F.Whittaker.
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Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%
(6:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:15) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to 50 for no gain (52-J.Norris).
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Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 20%
(2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
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Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%
(12:04) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-K.Short), Center-53-A.Glanton, Holder-9-B.Anger, RECOVERED by CAR-54-S.Thompson at CAR 28. 54-S.Thompson pushed ob at CAR 49 for 21 yards (9-B.Anger).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%
(6:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 19 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 90%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to TB 16 for 3 yards (30-B.McDougald).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 18 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.63 EPp(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%
(:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin to TB 5 for 13 yards (54-L.David).
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