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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to CAR 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model